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| 论文摘要： | At spatiotemporal scales, the interactive effects (i.e., additive, antagonistic, or synergistic) of multiple global changes on ecosystem services are not constant but dynamic. To examine this dynamic yet underexplored interaction, we predicted the asymmetric interplay between climate and land-use/cover (LULC) changes on water yield of ecosystems across China from 2021 to 2100 using multiple global climate models (GCMs). Combined LULC and climate impacts on water yield shift from the northeast and central areas (in 2021-2040) to western and southern regions in China (in 2061-2100). Rainfall changes dominate the patterns of interactions between rainfall and LULC changes in influencing the future water yield, while the transformation process of LULC strengthens or weakens these patterns. Specifically, during urbanization, the interactions are positive only under very low rainfall. In contrast, during transitions to grassland, forest, cropland, or barren land, the interactions are more pronounced under moderate rainfall but diminish as rainfall increases. An understanding of the dynamic impacts of global changes on water yield across landscapes and temporal scales is essential for effective natural resource management. |
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